Who will maintain their level at the business end of the 2025 WC?
It’s tempting to go with tournament form when trying to pick the winners of contests at this stage. Callan Rydz, for instance, enters the last eight with two 105+ averages behind him after some breathtaking displays. Rydz’ average for the tournament is a point higher than van Gerwen’s but does that make him anywhere close to being the more likely winner of their quarter final? He’s on a roll, sky-high on confidence and many will fancy his chances.
One of the most powerful forces applying to almost any phenomenon measurable by data is mean reversion – the theory that everything from stock prices to the numbers being produced by our beloved arrowsmiths will, over a long enough timeline, migrate towards a baseline level associated with that entity (the mean). When we examine things in this light, it raises questions like whether a trend will last or whether a new mean is being forged. This is further complicated by the time dimension, i.e. what is the correct period to assess the baseline over, recognising also in the case of darts, that people might be at stages of lifetime improvement or decline (Littler and Wright being cases in point). There can be timelines within timelines – a baseline level for form versus a baseline level for pedigree.
The above makes the outcomes of anything involving human endeavour extremely tough to predict. If they weren’t, the gambling industry wouldn’t exist. The question for us on this glorious New Year’s Day of Ally Pally quarter final carnage, is what are the signs, with this theory in mind, that might most accurately reflect the chances of our remaining contenders from here on in. One way of viewing it, is by form over the last 3 months and form over the last 12 months. We can isolate certain metrics using the same logic too – Peter Wright for example has hit 52% of his darts at double so far compared to around 40% in the previous 3 months and 38% in the previous 12 months. The indication here is that his accuracy won’t carry on for much longer. As the matches lengthen, the force gets stronger. It’s probable there’ll be a significant drop-off in Wright’s finishing in the next match against Bunting.
Who’s Operating at their Normal Level?
Littler, with a tournament average of almost 101, is punching right in the slot he’s been in all year on TV. The other factor with Littler is his mean is still evolving, and evolving upwards. Nothing in the 3-month dataset or the 12-month one implies that the Nuke won’t sustain what he’s produced so far and if his 3-month form is more indicative of where his baseline will eventually end up, he’s likely to raise his game at the business end of this tournament (bad signs for the rest). Littler’s scoring has been on a constant positive trajectory in the second half of the year, with maximum-hitting breaking new ground (we’ve never seen someone filling the red bit with such regularity, for such a prolonged time, as Littler in late 2024).
Van Gerwen is another cruising at the altitude he’s been at across the year, and better than his more recent form in the last few months. At a tournament average of around 98, we could see a spike or a trough from The Green Machine as has been his way in the last couple of years. Over the course of 3 more long matches if he makes it through, the data doesn’t point towards any spike being more than brief. The most likely path to a 4th world title would be Rydz, Dobey/Price and then Littler. Two of those have had statistically superior seasons so he’d have to be right on it at the right time (in keeping with his favourite mantra).
The ever-popular Stephen Bunting is also bang-smack in the range we’ve become accustomed to. Expect him to continue to operate within this range and like van Gerwen, if he can time the peaks and troughs, he has a chance of going all the way. The Bullet is rightfully an odds-on favourite in his quarter-final, despite Wright’s heroics against Humphries.
Who’s Punching Above their Weight?
Peter Wright is a man of some pedigree. His performances and 95-ish average at this championship, helped by a monster percentage on doubles, is certainly not out of the ordinary in the context of his career. It is out of the ordinary in the context of his 2024 though, and even his form of the previous 3 months. Is Wright reverting to a career mean? If so, he becomes a real contender for a 3rd world title and wouldn’t be far off being the favourite. Alternatively, this could be a flash in the pan in the twilight of a career that disappears as quickly as it arrived. Wright’s case is the most intriguing for this very reason. With so many slumps and highs in his past, some linked to chopping and changing equipment amongst other ingredients, Wright is arguably harder to gauge than any other player in history. If we assume his career has now settled in the more modest range of the last couple of years, he probably needs Bunting to be out-of-sorts to get past him and if he does, will come unstuck in the semi-finals. Even so, what a remarkable story already.
Alongside Wright, the most obvious player in is this category is Rydz. Averaging 93 for the year and 94 in the last 3 months (including this Championship), Rydz is well above his ‘normal’ level with a tournament average of over 99 (only Littler has higher). We know that Rydz has ridiculous averages in him but even in his more consistent years as a pro has been around the 94-mark . The continuation of such a purple patch at Ally Pally is difficult to foresee, and the kinds of drops required to bring Rydz back towards his mean, one would think would be too severe to see him progress much further.
Who’s Been Holding Back the Punches?
Aspinall, Dobey and Price. All are under both their 3 and 12-month benchmarks. Dobey is the furthest away on averages, indicating he could have the biggest change in artillery to bring out of his locker. Is it about to be unleashed on The Iceman? Don’t bet against this – his consistency has been too stark and for too long to ignore. Dobey is still in the event whilst plodding along by the standards he’s been setting for a while now and might have the most left to give. Price looks to have more in the tank too. The difference between their trajectories is that Price’s 3-month statistics are already somewhat lower than his statistics for the year and he probably needs to jump all the way back to his earlier 2024 form to have enough to go to the semi-final and beyond. We can expect both players to improve considerably, with Dobey’s improvement more dependable and coming from an already higher performance level than Price in the tournament so far. If Hollywood peaks now, he has the A-game to go all the way.
Aspinall, with the hardest of tasks ahead of him, will have to produce something sublime to lift his game from what’s been adequate to see off opponents so far. Unchallenged up to the quarter-final stage with an average of just over 91, he’s going to have to raise it 6 to 7 points to compete with Littler if Littler’s level drops, and 9 to 10 points if it remains on his tournament average. The Nuke finding a higher gear would see the task become monumental. A mean reversion for The Asp would have him playing better rather than worse – he could easily put 5-6 points on that tournament average, which should give his fans hope. That said, it would be a surprise if it’s enough.
Editorial Staff
